Polymarket's "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June" contract sits at 18¢, giving roughly two weeks to resolve a disruption that has no confirmed diplomatic path back, and the price has not moved toward consensus. At 94¢, Polymarket's contract on a Fed hold in July is as close to a settled question as the rates complex produces, which makes the 12-point gap between prediction markets and the NY Fed recession model the more pointed number: traders are pricing a Fed that has nothing left to do while the yield-curve-derived recession probability sits eleven points higher. SpaceX set to leapfrog Amazon and become the world's fifth-largest company by conventional market-cap reckoning, yet Polymarket's contract on the company hitting a $3.5T valuation by June 30 is at 17¢, a long shot price that implies the current trajectory, however steep, stops well short of that threshold inside a fortnight. The CFTC's proposed rulemaking on event contracts involving enumerated activities, now open for public comment, is the procedural step that determines how much of the prediction-market ecosystem remains legal to operate in the United States, which makes it the most consequential regulatory process in this space since the agency's 2023 Kalshi ruling, yet no prediction-market contract on its outcome currently commands a price visible enough to anchor a trade.