Polymarket's "Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30" contract sits at 68¢ with twelve days left, pricing something close to a working assumption of diplomatic closure, a level that would look generous if June 30 were a hard constraint rather than a negotiating anchor. The Polymarket contract on no Fed rate change at the July 2026 meeting, at 78¢, has priced out nearly all live probability of a cut, which fits the CFTC's burst of regulatory activity this week: an agency comfortable in a stable-rate environment, not a crisis. Polymarket's "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30" at 98¢ is about as settled as prediction markets get, leaving two cents to cover two weeks of tail risk in the most-watched equity on earth. Polymarket and Kalshi price 2026 recession at 13¢ against the NY Fed model's implied 27¢. The fourteen-point gap has held long enough to be a disagreement rather than a lag: either the crowd is discounting a yield-curve signal gone stale since the post-2022 inversion that never delivered, or the old model is carrying weight it no longer deserves.