Polymarket's "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?" sits at 14¢. The price has held through eighteen months of attrition warfare, drone strikes on Moscow, and steady Western speculation about Kremlin instability, which tells you traders read all of it as noise over a structure that has not moved. Kalshi's H200 compute-per-hour contract, resolving today, stayed pinned at 96¢ all session, the $4.99 floor treated as settled before the closing print arrived, a near-consensus read that fits the broader GPU pricing environment heading into the second half of 2026. Polymarket prices a 2026 US recession at 12¢ while the NY Fed model and the FRED T10Y3M spread imply something closer to 29¢, an eighteen-point gap that sits awkwardly beside the CFTC's simultaneous push for public comment on event-contract data reporting, since tighter disclosure would tend to surface the informational edge these markets claim over macro models, not bury it. Pete Buttigieg leads the Democratic 2028 field on Polymarket at 4¢, which describes a wide-open race rather than a market with a view.