Kalshi's "Will Graham Platner drop out before July 14" contract sits at 92¢, which is less a probability than a formality waiting on paperwork. Trump's statement that the ceasefire with Iran is "over," followed by reports of mutual strikes on tankers, has not budged Polymarket's "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" contract off 15¢, a price that reads the escalation as noise rather than trajectory. Polymarket puts no Fed rate change in July at 76¢, while prediction markets collectively price 2026 recession odds at 10¢ against the NY Fed model's 27¢ implied probability, a seventeen-point gap that makes sense only if traders discount the yield-curve signal more heavily than the Fed itself does. NVIDIA holds at 80¢ to be the world's largest company by market cap on July 31, the verdict of a market that has watched the stock absorb one geopolitical shock after another and decided the cap-rank question is, for now, closed.