Kalshi's "Will Democrats win the House in 2026?" contract at 82¢ is about as close to a consensus call as prediction markets produce, and with the World Cup dominating the news cycle and Congress in recess, nothing in the last 72 hours has meaningfully challenged that read. Polymarket's "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" at 82¢ matches the House odds almost to the cent, which is a useful reminder that two contracts can price the same probability for entirely different reasons, one reflecting accumulated political momentum, the other a near-term institutional decision that the data has essentially already made. A second day of US strikes against Iran sits alongside a Polymarket "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" contract at 62¢, a price that has to account for the possibility that "normal" is now a moving target as Khamenei's succession reshapes whatever deal or deterrent framework previously held. Polymarket and Kalshi together price a US recession in 2026 near 10¢ while the NY Fed model and the T10Y3M spread imply something closer to 27¢, a 16-point gap that has persisted long enough to be a feature rather than a lag, and at this point the more interesting question is which framework is treating the tariff shock as transitory and which is not.