Polymarket's "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31" contract sits at 56¢, a bare majority priced on a waterway that handles roughly a fifth of global oil supply, and China's car export volumes clearing one million units monthly for the first time tells you something about whose supply chains are most exposed if that 56¢ resolves the wrong way. At 62¢, Polymarket's contract on no Fed rate change at the July meeting prices a hold as the modal but not dominant outcome, a posture that is hard to square with the 16-point gap between prediction markets at 10¢ and the NY Fed model at 26¢ on 2026 recession odds, since a world where the yield-curve and Fed models are right about recession risk is probably not a world where the Fed holds. NVIDIA's 88¢ on Polymarket to be the world's largest company by market cap on July 31 is near-consensus, not a bet, and the interesting question at that price is not whether it resolves yes but what the remaining 12¢ is actually pricing: a two-week window in which a twelve-figure move in one direction would need to happen. The CFTC's decision to stay a self-certified contract on 24/7 crude oil futures trading carries no direct contract of its own on Polymarket, which is itself a data point about where the prediction-market ecosystem still has gaps in covering the regulatory plumbing that prices everything else.