Polymarket's "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?" sits at 92¢, a near-consensus read that gives the current leader maybe a one-in-twelve chance of slipping over the next two weeks, even as China posts one of its lowest growth rates in decades and the global minerals race reworks the supply chains NVIDIA's valuation rests on. At 18¢, "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" is a long shot, though not a negligible one. It prices roughly triple the odds of the Greenland acquisition contract and sits well above the base rates most geopolitical analysts would assign to a full military incursion in the aftermath of an election year. Markets have "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" at 94¢, close to a settled question, yet the same ecosystem prices a 2026 U.S. recession at only 10¢ against the NY Fed model's 26¢, a sixteen-point gap that is hard to square with a Fed still frozen well into the second half of the year.