THE MENSOR · AS OF JUL 28, 2026
Prediction markets put real money on real questions — elections, conflicts, interest rates, the year ahead. The Mensor distills thousands of those prices into a small set of indices: single, legible figures for how much risk and expectation the markets are pricing, checked against the traditional data they should agree with. The instruments arrive in July. The Daily Brief reads the markets every weekday morning.
A suite of prediction-market indices — each read across venues, depth-weighted, and anchored to the traditional data it should agree with — arrives in July, with methodology, history, and a read API.
WIDEST OPEN DIVERGENCEUS recession in 2026. Prediction markets sit at 13¢ (Polymarket+Kalshi) against a traditional reading of 27¢ (FRED T10Y3M + NY Fed model) — a 14 pts gap. The ledger →
Weekday mornings; an essay on Saturday. No marketing copy.
Read the latest — Wednesday, July 15 →
Read past editions →A printed almanac of unconventional data, designed to be kept. The first issue is forthcoming.
The Quarterly →