THE MENSOR · INDICES · FORTHCOMING
The Mensor is building a suite of prediction-market indices: each a single legible figure aggregated across venues — depth-weighted, fee-adjusted, aware of how every contract resolves — and each anchored to the traditional reading it should agree with. Where the market's expectation and the official measure part ways, the gap is the subject. The instruments, their methodology, their history, and data access arrive in July.
Geopolitical risk, read across venues rather than from one. The macro regime the markets price, set against the official prints. Where the market's attention sits, in dollars. And a standing ledger of the places prediction markets and traditional indicators disagree — each gap tracked until it closes, and scored for who was right.
The divergence ledger is already public →The Mensor reads the market; it does not take positions in it. An index is a measurement, not a forecast and not a tradable product. Prediction-market prices are risk-neutral and approximate probabilities.