Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
A composition change moves the level without any market moving; the reasons are in the composition log below.
Contribution change against the tick a day earlier. Coverage coincided with the window; it is not an explanation.
What it measures
The Gaza corridor, ceasefire and escalation markets.
Recent changes
2026-10-28
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?: band depth $184 (7-day median $40) below the $250 hard floor on 7-day median; score 0.6159
REMOVED
2026-10-28
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?: band depth $171 (7-day median $213) below the $250 hard floor on 7-day median; score 0.6548
REMOVED
2026-10-28
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?: de-escalation, depth $280, confidence 0.6
ADDED
2026-10-28
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?: band depth $23 (7-day median $104) below the $250 hard floor on 288 consecutive readings; score 0.5257
REMOVED
2026-10-28
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31: band depth $22 (7-day median $2) below the $250 hard floor on 288 consecutive readings; score 0.4124
REMOVED
2026-10-28
Methodology version change: Ticks from 2026-10-28T03:08:30.766748+00:00 carry MGRI-1.2.0; the last published tick (2026-10-28T02:08:20.680434+00:00) carried MGRI-1.1.0. The 24h change is withheld across the seam.
NOTE
2026-10-28
Published level departs from composed: Published level 53.9; composed level 10.25; gap 43.65 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-14
Published level departs from composed: Published level 57.6; composed level 34.75; gap 22.85 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
Composition changes from the hourly selection scan and the daily reconstitution. Every change is logged and the seam is stamped on the series.
Coverage that coincided with the reading. The Mensor links moves to reporting; it does not claim one caused the other.
Constituent detail
What feeds the figure at last compute, each constituent on its own: venue prices in cents or indicator values in their natural unit, its weight, its published history, and the coverage that coincided with it. The mapping layer →
geo-gaza-will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensWeight in index 50.0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
Markets in this family the selection scan has seen but not admitted, each held at a gate or awaiting a direction call, and every exit in the last thirty days.
Will Amcha Yisrael be in the next Israeli government?
245d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$14DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027?
123d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$822DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?
245d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$343DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?
245d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$69DEPTH
HELD
Kalshi
Will Together finish 3rd in the 2026 Israeli Knesset election?
364d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$0DEPTH
HELD
Kalshi
Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that the President of Israel gives Benjamin Netanyahu the first mandate to form a government following the 2026 Knesset election before Jan 1, 2027?
64d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$46DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Israel Election: Likud or Yashar in Government?
123d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$6DEPTH
HELD
Kalshi
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
364d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$14DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will Yisrael Beiteinu be in the next Israeli government?
245d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$648DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will Yashar be in the next Israeli government?
245d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$357DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Next Israeli government formed by June 30, 2027?
245d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$344DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026?
245d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$153DEPTH
HELD
EXITS · 30 DAYS
2026-10-28
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
band depth $184 (7-day median $40) below the $250 hard floor on 7-day median; score 0.6159 · S 0.62
EXITED
2026-10-28
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
band depth $171 (7-day median $213) below the $250 hard floor on 7-day median; score 0.6548 · S 0.65
EXITED
2026-10-28
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
band depth $22 (7-day median $2) below the $250 hard floor on 288 consecutive readings; score 0.4124 · S 0.41
EXITED
2026-10-28
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
band depth $23 (7-day median $104) below the $250 hard floor on 288 consecutive readings; score 0.5257 · S 0.53
EXITED
2026-10-06
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
band depth $0 (7-day median $223) below the $250 hard floor on 7-day median; score 0.3961 · S 0.40
EXITED
2026-10-02
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
score 0.6424 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.64
EXITED
2026-09-30
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
score 0.1987 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.20
EXITED
2026-09-30
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
score 0.1987 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.20
EXITED
2026-09-30
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
score 0.1987 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.20
EXITED
2026-09-29
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
score 0.1987 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.20
EXITED
2026-09-29
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
score 0.1987 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.20
EXITED
A market enters when it clears the eligibility gates and its selection score reaches the entry floor; membership is decided by score, weight by depth. A related market stays listed here until a decision is logged, and every exit for thirty days.
The Mensor reads the market; it does not take positions in it. MGRI-GAZA is a measurement, not a forecast and not a tradable product. Prediction-market prices are risk-neutral and approximate probabilities.