Recession risk
Polymarket8¢
COINCIDENT COVERAGE
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Constituents and weights are fixed
Index composability is forthcoming.
A composite index of the macro stress prediction markets and selected fiat anchors are pricing, recession risk, the rate path, inflation pressure, growth, and financial conditions, on a base-100-neutral scale.
Composition changes from the hourly selection scan and the daily reconstitution. Every change is logged and the seam is stamped on the series.
Coverage that coincided with the reading. The Mensor links moves to reporting; it does not claim one caused the other.
Constituents at the last published tick, 2026-10-15. No constituent has cleared the depth floor since; the reading stands until one does.
The Mensor reads the market; it does not take positions in it. MMI is a measurement, not a forecast and not a tradable product. Prediction-market prices are risk-neutral and approximate probabilities.
This index is built and in final review. It opens to readers shortly.
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