← MGRI-UKRAINETHE MAPPING LAYER · AS OF 2026-10-15
MGRI-UKRAINEConstituents
The canonical events feeding the figure, and the venue contracts mapped to each. Two contracts join the same event only where their resolution criteria agree; a flagged row carries a caveat from the engine, not a judgment from the page.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?risk 91%
CORRIDOR UKRAINE · DE-ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 48.3% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $6,335 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket2264328 · resolves on exact10¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?risk 96%
CORRIDOR UKRAINE · ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 26.3% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $2,854 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket667086 · resolves on exact96¢
Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027risk 93%
CORRIDOR UKRAINE · DE-ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 12.9% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $742 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket665224 · resolves on exact8¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?risk 21%
CORRIDOR UKRAINE · DE-ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 12.5% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $424 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket666608 · resolves on exact80¢
This page renders the mapping detail that publishes with each tick. The full mapping ledger (proposed candidates, resolution-criteria adjudication, and conflict review) is maintained in the pipeline and is not yet public. Methodology: how MGRI-UKRAINE is built →