← MGRITHE MAPPING LAYER · AS OF 2026-10-15
MGRIConstituents
The canonical events feeding the figure, and the venue contracts mapped to each. Two contracts join the same event only where their resolution criteria agree; a flagged row carries a caveat from the engine, not a judgment from the page.
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?risk 21%
CORRIDOR IRAN · DE-ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 25.0% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $72,142 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket4641065 · resolves on exact80¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?risk 17%
CORRIDOR IRAN · ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 11.9% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $23,641 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket665374 · resolves on exact17¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?risk 88%
CORRIDOR IRAN · DE-ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 10.9% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $21,732 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket2176270 · resolves on exact13¢
Iranian regime falls before 2027risk 6%
CORRIDOR IRAN · ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 10.7% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $21,383 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket663583 · resolves on exact6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?risk 91%
CORRIDOR UKRAINE · DE-ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 3.2% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $6,335 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket2264328 · resolves on exact10¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?risk 16%
CORRIDOR IRAN · DE-ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 2.6% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $5,121 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket3399459 · resolves on exact85¢
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?risk 9%
CORRIDOR GAZA · ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 2.4% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $1,378 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket665484 · resolves on exact9¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?risk 26%
ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 2.4% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $2,281 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket1090496 · resolves on exact26¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?risk 8%
ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 2.4% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $1,177 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket1107878 · resolves on exact8¢
Iran nuclear weapon before 2027risk 3%
CORRIDOR IRAN · ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 2.4% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $472 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket677396 · resolves on exact3¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?risk 21%
CORRIDOR UKRAINE · DE-ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 2.4% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $424 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket666608 · resolves on exact80¢
Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027risk 93%
CORRIDOR UKRAINE · DE-ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 2.4% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $742 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket665224 · resolves on exact8¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?risk 96%
CORRIDOR UKRAINE · ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 2.4% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $2,854 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket667086 · resolves on exact96¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?risk 88%
CORRIDOR IRAN · DE-ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 2.4% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $2,791 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket2696747 · resolves on exact13¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?risk 7%
ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 2.4% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $901 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket3120760 · resolves on exact7¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31risk 95%
CORRIDOR GAZA · DE-ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 2.4% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $413 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket2639520 · resolves on exact5¢
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?risk 8%
CORRIDOR TAIWAN · ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 2.4% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $1,436 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket1811266 · resolves on exact8¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?risk 4%
ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 2.4% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $1,083 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket687642 · resolves on exact4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?risk 10%
CORRIDOR IRAN · ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 2.4% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $2,505 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket3128888 · resolves on exact10¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?risk 13%
CORRIDOR GAZA · ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 2.4% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $397 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket2749311 · resolves on exact13¢
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?risk 4%
CORRIDOR TAIWAN · ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 2.4% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $157 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket677407 · resolves on exact4¢
This page renders the mapping detail that publishes with each tick. The full mapping ledger (proposed candidates, resolution-criteria adjudication, and conflict review) is maintained in the pipeline and is not yet public. Methodology: how MGRI is built →